Market news

Overnight Headlines

*US stocks post another record high on earnings optimism

*USD edges higher, best gains versus EUR and JPY

*Australia core inflation accelerates back inside RBA target

*Alphabet and Microsoft smash estimates, Robinhood disappoints

US equities extended their all-time highs on positive corporate earnings and data. A surprise rebound in US consumer confidence snapped a three-month slide. Strong US housing market figures also helped sentiment. Utilities and consumer staples led the way, not the cyclical sectors who have previously led indices to new highs. But sentiment is more negative this morning with Asian markets mostly lower. US futures are modestly in the green.

USD crept higher making its best gains against the euro and yen. DXY closed at 93.95. EUR traded down to an intraday low of 1.1585 but is back near 1.16. USD/JPY pushed up to 114.31 but trades back near 114. AUD leads the gains today as stronger inflation data moved already aggressively priced money markets.

Market Thoughts – Aussie Inflation lifts AUD

Once again, we’ve had stronger inflation numbers and the market pricing in interest rate hikes way ahead of the guidance of the central bank. The trimmed mean print out of Australia earlier today showed stronger price pressures than expected. It rose to 2.1% meaning it is back inside the RBA’s 2-3% target band, for the first time since the end of 2015.

The market now looks for the RBA to raise its policy rate three times before the end of next year. However, policymakers have maintained that 2024 is the earliest that they will be targeting any hikes. Money markets had already been “front running” a change of policy guidance to the hawkish side for the RBA. AUD is the strongest major on the session. We note that wage growth remains unimpressive, but more upside inflation readings will heap the pressure on the RBA.

Chart of the Day – USD/CAD eases back from oversold conditions

The Bank of Canada meets today and is expected to taper its bond buying for a fourth time from C$2bn to C$1bn. Focus will be on its forward guidance and language around potential rate hikes. Markets are fully pricing in an April rate move with a 75% chance of a March hike.

Any disappointment by the BoC and a more cautious stance will move USD/CAD higher. The major has broken out of a bear channel and recently pushed above the Fib level (61.8%) of the June/August move at 1.2366. Loonie sellers will target the midpoint of that move at 1.2477. This comes ahead of 1.25 and the 200-day SMA. A more hawkish BoC should see the pair move towards recent lows at 1.2288.

Jamie DuttaAnalyst / Trader

"With extensive experience as a full time trader and financial market commentator, I have worked as a trader in top tier investment banks and trading houses, including Morgan Stanley and GAIN Capital trading Forex, Index derivatives. and Bonds. I combine technical analysis with a deep fundamental knowledge to identify trade set-ups. My real life experience allows me to break down the complexities of financial jargon and trading. This means everyone can better understand the compelling forces of greed and fear which are realised every day in countless ways across markets."

Vantage does not represent or warrant that the material provided here is accurate, current, or complete, and therefore should not be relied upon as such. The information provided here, whether from a third party or not, is not to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments; or to participate in any specific trading strategy. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Vantage, reproduction or redistribution of this information is not permitted.